7/26/06

Hi all. I will be busy for the next two weeks, so I will not be posting anything. I promise that after two weeks I will return to posting and not totally forget. See y'all in two weeks!

New Mexico (7/22/06)

Senator Pete Domenici is the second-longest serving Republican in the Senate, having been elected four years after Ted Stevens. There are rumblings that he will retire, in which case this seat will become pretty hotly contested. A potential GOP nominee, if that were to be the case, might be Congressman Steve Pearce. The state party is pretty bad, and would be short of a good nominee. Even if Domenici were to run, this state is trending Democrat and it would be close anyway. State Attorney General Patricia Madrid, currently running for a House seat, would be a good nominee if she loses this November. The state's Democratic Congressman, Tom Udall of the Udall political family, would be a formidable opponent as well. Governor Bill Richardson looks to be running for President, but if he doesn't, he would be a good nominee, but he might not want to leave for the Senate in the middle of his gubernatorial term. This race really depends on the mood of the state in 2008.

Potential GOP Candidates: U.S. Senator Pete Domenici (http://domenici.senate.gov/)
Congressman Steve Pearce (http://www.stevepearceforcongress.com/)

Potential Dem Candidates: Attorney General Patricia Madrid (http://www.madridforcongress.com/)
Governor Bill Richardson (http://billrichardson2006.com/)
Congressman Tom Udall (http://www.udallforusall.org/)

Current Rating: Leans GOP

Weekly Rankings (7/17/06)

Here they are again. Bold indicates a ratings change.

Top 5 seats MOST likely to change parties (1 being the most likely):
1. Colorado (R-Allard) [Toss-Up]
2. New Jersey (D-Lautenberd) [Toss-Up]
3. Maine (R-Collins) [Leans GOP]
4. Minnesota (R-Coleman) [Leans GOP]
4. North Carolina (R-Dole) [Leans GOP]

Top 5 seats LEAST likely to change parties (1 being the least likely):
1. Mississippi (R-Cochran) [Safe GOP]
2. Rhode Island (D-Reed) [Safe Dem]
3. Idaho (R-Craig) [Safe GOP]
4. Nebraska (R-Hagel) [Safe GOP]
5. Illinois (D-Durbin) [Safe Dem]

Oregon (7/16/06)

Well, we’ve covered all of the Democratic incumbent races. So, instead of going D-R-D-R, etc… I’m going to just post on all the Republican races that haven’t been covered yet and then, at the end, I’ll just start over again. So, to the analysis! Gordon Smith is young, charismatic, and a political moderate. In Oregon, that is appreciated, yet he isn‘t that popular (6% net) due to Oregon‘s hatred of President Bush (-25% net). On top of all that, the Democratic party has a potentially devastating challenger: Former Governor John Kitzhaber. A beloved figure in the state, he is still popular four years removed from public office. He almost came out of retirement this year to challenge Governor Ted Kulongoski in the primary, but decided against it. Whether or not he challenges Smith will decide this race. If he does, it becomes one of the top five closest races. If he doesn’t, then the Democrats might have to turn to a second-rate candidate, such as Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. Keep your eye on this race. Because it’s Oregon, it has the chance to get lost in the news.

Potential GOP Candidates: U.S. Senator Gordon Smith (http://gsmith.senate.gov/)

Potential Dem Candidates: Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (http://www.bradburyfororegon.com/)
Former Governor John Kitzhaber (http://law.lclark.edu/org/kcenter/biokitzhaber.html)

Current Rating: Leans GOP

Virginia (7/13/06)

John Warner is old and may retire. If he doesn’t, common sense dictates that he should easily win reelection (he won with 83% in 2002), but that might not be the case. Former Governor Mark Warner (no relation) is dabbling in presidential politics, but should he choose to give up those ambitions, he would be a formidable opponent to the five-term senator. If Senator Warner retires, the GOP is in a lot of trouble. The Virginia Democratic party is gaining a lot in the state and they have some pretty good candidates (not including Mark Warner), such as Congressman Jim Moran. He is an old hand in Virginia politics. The Republican candidate if John Warner reitres would most likely be Congressman Tom Davis. He is fairly young, conservative, and charismatic. The total unpredictability of this race leaves it wide open and should be one of the key 2008 races.

Potential GOP Candidates: U.S. Senator John Warner (http://warner.senate.gov/)
Congressman Tom Davis (http://www.tomdavis.org/)

Potential Dem Candidates: Congressman Jim Moran (http://www.jimmoran.org/)
Former Governor Mark Warner (http://www.forwardtogetherpac.com/)

Current Rating: Leans GOP

Arkansas (7/12/06)

I've been so busy. No matter. I am still here to satisfy all your political needs. Well, onto the race. Mark Pryor was elected in 2002, beating incumbent Senator Tim Hutchinson by a surprisingly large 8%. This time around, Pryor is the incumbent and Tim's brother Asa, an ex-Congressman, might be coming back for revenge. But, in all truth, it sounds a lot scarier than it really is. Pryor is well-liked and Asa is preparing to lose the gubernatorial race this fall. Too bad that the Arkansas GOP doesn't have any other viable candidates, or this race could be one of the closest in 2008. Democrats should sleep easy with this race, as Pryor will probably be reelected with a fairly comfortable margin.

Potential Dem Candidates: U.S. Senator Mark Pryor (http://pryor.senate.gov/)

Potential GOP Candidates: Ex-Congressman Asa Hutchinson (http://www.asaforgovernor.org/)

Current Rating: Leans Dem

Idaho (7/5/06)

Larry Craig, right now, is one of the safest incumbents. He will face a weak challenger, if he faces one at all, in 2008. He will almost definitely run for reelection, and will face little or no opposition in the primary. The Democrats would fare best if they nominate Dan Williams, an attorney and frequent Democratic candidate for various offices. He is a strong campaigner that almost won a U.S. House seat a few years back. If he doesn't run, it's good night for the Democrats and hello to six more years of Larry Craig. But this race will most likely stay strongly Republican anyway.

Potential GOP Candidates: U.S. Senator Larry Craig (http://craig.senate.gov/)

Potential Dem Candidates: Attorney Dan Williams (no website)

Current Rating: Safe GOP

Weekly Rankings (7/3/06)

Well, I've been busy working and all, so the updates will be more infrequent. In any case, here are the weekly rankings. Bold, as always, indicates a ratings change.

Top 5 seats MOST likely to change parties (1 being the most likely):
1. Colorado (R-Allard) [Toss-Up]
2. Maine (R-Collins) [Toss-Up]
3. New Jersey (D-Lautenberg) [Toss-Up]
4. Minnesota (R-Coleman) [Leans GOP]
5. North Carolina (R-Dole) [Leans GOP]

Top 5 seats LEAST likely to change parties (1 being the least likely):
1. Mississippi (R-Cochran) [Safe GOP]
2. Rhode Island (D-Reed) [Safe Dem]
3. Nebraska (R-Hagel) [Safe GOP]
4. Montana (D-Baucus) [Safe Dem]
5. Illinois (D-Durbin) [Safe Dem]