Sunday, December 24, 2006

Louisiana analysis (12/24/06)

Still nothing new in the world, so how about some analysis? Let us look to the Pelican State, where Mary Landrieu (D) seeks her third term in office. She's never had an easy election, and 2008 will be no exception. She won by just 4000 votes in 1996 and 40000 in 2002. Anti-Landrieu sentiment seems to have cooled down (she was at a 49% disapproval/46% approval in 2/06), but her 54% approval rating isn’t too confidence inspiring. Then again, neither are the potential Republican candidates. Secretary of State Jay Dardenne isn’t an imposing figure, but right now he seems to be one of the leading GOP contenders. Congressman Bobby Jindal is the Republicans’ dream candidate, but he seems poised to defeat Governor Kathleen Blanco in 2007 and would, therefore, be unavailable to run. But if he loses that race, you can count him in (and dangerous) for 2008. Other possible Republican candidates are Congressmen Jim McCrery and Richard Baker, both fairly conservative, boring candidates. However, poor black Democrats (and there are a lot of them) displaced by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 might not vote in Louisiana in 2008, and with them goes Landrieu’s key bloc of supporters. The Louisiana GOP is on the upswing since electing a Republican senator, David Vitter, in 2004, the first time that happened in over a century. I am, right now, predicting a Landrieu hold, but that will almost assuredly all change over the next year. As I said earlier, Landrieu will have another really close election.


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