Colorado update (3/23/07)

Yesterday former Congressman Scott McInnis, the presumptive frontrunner for the GOP nomination in the 2008 Colorado Senate race, announced that he would not, in fact, run for the seat. This opens the race up for former Congressman Bob Schaffer to get the nomination, but other candidates do still stand in his way (State Attorney General John Suthers is another possible candidate). This doesn't change the dynamics of the race that much, as Democratic Congressman Mark Udall is still the favored Democratic nominee and favored to pick up the seat. But if the GOP quickly unites behind a candidate such as Schaffer, widely regarded as one of the most conservative Congressmen while serving in the house, than this might be closer than anticipated.

News (2/24/07)

Sorry about the delay. Anyway, in the news:

• Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) is probably running for reelection, as he has begun to fundraise for a potential campaign. http://www.wmcstations.com/Global/story.asp?S=6118796
  
• Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) was released from the hospital and is mulling running for reelection in spite of his being incapacitated for the past two months. http://amcblog.nationaljournal.com/njoncall/2007/02/ tim_johnson_released_from_hosp.php
  

Rankings (1/24/07)

Sorry for the delay, here are the rankings. Red is GOP-held, Blue is Dem-held, and italics means that I predict that seat to switch parties.

Five seats most likely to change parties:
1. Colorado (OPEN-Wayne Allard)
2. New Hampshire (John Sununu)
3. Minnesota (Norm Coleman)
4. South Dakota (Tim Johnson)
5. Oregon (Gordon Smith)

Five seats least likely to switch parties:
1. Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
2. Illinois (Richard Durbin)
3. Idaho (Larry Craig)
4. Massachusetts (John Kerry)
5. Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Colorado analysis (1/19/07)

So, a couple of days ago, Senator Wayne Allard announced that he will not seek a third terh in the Senate. As he had a two-term pledge, this was not too surprising, but there had been some whisperings that he would renege on his pledge. In any case, this election just got a bit harder for the GOP to win (as this was already the most competitive race). Democratic Congressman Mark Udall is already the runaway favorite for his party's nomination, barring an entry into the race by Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, and figures to be the favorite for the general election as well. The Republican field is decidedly weak, featuring three ex-congressmen and an ex-governor. However, only two of those four (Ex-Congressmen Scott McInnis and Bob Schaffer) are actually expected to run. McInnis, the more conservative of the two, is probably favored for the nomination at this point purely due to name recognition in his homestate, but that could all change. Right now, Udall is favored, but if Ex-Governor Bill Owens jumps into the race, it'll be a toss-up.

News (1/5/07)

Here's some new news for y'all:

• Congressman Peter DeFazio (D-OR), new chairman of the Highways, Transit, and Pipelines subcommitee, pulled his name from consideration for the 2008 senate race: http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/010407.html
• Due to the bleeding in his brain, Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) is currently incapacitated and will likely be forced to not seek reelection in 2008. This will, in all likelihood, allow Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth (D-SD) to run for the open seat against the eventual GOP candidate (who might be very popular governor Mike Rounds): http://www.argusleader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/
  20070104/NEWS/701040352/1001
• And, finally, Senator Wayne Allard (R-CO), who might retire in 2008, has been fueling that speculation lately. Yesterday he proposed a bill that would commemorate President Ronald Reagan's speech at the Brandenburg Gate in the form of an art piece, a bill that sounds more like a last-ditch effort at something he wants rather than a move that will win him support for a third term: http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/elections/article/
  0,2808,DRMN_24736_5256854,00.html
  

Louisiana analysis (12/24/06)

Still nothing new in the world, so how about some analysis? Let us look to the Pelican State, where Mary Landrieu (D) seeks her third term in office. She's never had an easy election, and 2008 will be no exception. She won by just 4000 votes in 1996 and 40000 in 2002. Anti-Landrieu sentiment seems to have cooled down (she was at a 49% disapproval/46% approval in 2/06), but her 54% approval rating isn’t too confidence inspiring. Then again, neither are the potential Republican candidates. Secretary of State Jay Dardenne isn’t an imposing figure, but right now he seems to be one of the leading GOP contenders. Congressman Bobby Jindal is the Republicans’ dream candidate, but he seems poised to defeat Governor Kathleen Blanco in 2007 and would, therefore, be unavailable to run. But if he loses that race, you can count him in (and dangerous) for 2008. Other possible Republican candidates are Congressmen Jim McCrery and Richard Baker, both fairly conservative, boring candidates. However, poor black Democrats (and there are a lot of them) displaced by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 might not vote in Louisiana in 2008, and with them goes Landrieu’s key bloc of supporters. The Louisiana GOP is on the upswing since electing a Republican senator, David Vitter, in 2004, the first time that happened in over a century. I am, right now, predicting a Landrieu hold, but that will almost assuredly all change over the next year. As I said earlier, Landrieu will have another really close election.

Virginia analysis (12/17/06)

Two days ago, John Warner announced that he was "leaning in favor" of running for a sixth term in the U.S. Senate. While this doesn't surprise anybody, it does give pundits (such as myself) more of a grip on the race at hand. With Warner now presumably not being challenged by anybody in his own party's primary, let us look to the Democratic side. The obvious frontrunner, if he so chooses to run, would be Ex-Governor Mark Warner. His October announcement that he is not going to run for President set off a firestorm of predictions for his future, including a possible run for either the Senate in 2008 or a second term in the Governor's mansion in 2009. Lesser known, but probably more likely, candidates include Congressman Rick Boucher, State Senator Creigh Deeds, and Congressman Bobby Scott. If it's Warner v. Warner, in a rematch of 1996, look for (Mark) Warner to be favored. Otherwise, this is a toss-up. George Allen's surprising 2006 Senate loss thrust Virginia into the solidly-purple column, and it will show in this race as well as the 2008 presidential race.