Rankings (1/24/07)

Sorry for the delay, here are the rankings. Red is GOP-held, Blue is Dem-held, and italics means that I predict that seat to switch parties.

Five seats most likely to change parties:
1. Colorado (OPEN-Wayne Allard)
2. New Hampshire (John Sununu)
3. Minnesota (Norm Coleman)
4. South Dakota (Tim Johnson)
5. Oregon (Gordon Smith)

Five seats least likely to switch parties:
1. Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
2. Illinois (Richard Durbin)
3. Idaho (Larry Craig)
4. Massachusetts (John Kerry)
5. Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Colorado analysis (1/19/07)

So, a couple of days ago, Senator Wayne Allard announced that he will not seek a third terh in the Senate. As he had a two-term pledge, this was not too surprising, but there had been some whisperings that he would renege on his pledge. In any case, this election just got a bit harder for the GOP to win (as this was already the most competitive race). Democratic Congressman Mark Udall is already the runaway favorite for his party's nomination, barring an entry into the race by Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, and figures to be the favorite for the general election as well. The Republican field is decidedly weak, featuring three ex-congressmen and an ex-governor. However, only two of those four (Ex-Congressmen Scott McInnis and Bob Schaffer) are actually expected to run. McInnis, the more conservative of the two, is probably favored for the nomination at this point purely due to name recognition in his homestate, but that could all change. Right now, Udall is favored, but if Ex-Governor Bill Owens jumps into the race, it'll be a toss-up.

News (1/5/07)

Here's some new news for y'all:

• Congressman Peter DeFazio (D-OR), new chairman of the Highways, Transit, and Pipelines subcommitee, pulled his name from consideration for the 2008 senate race: http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/010407.html
• Due to the bleeding in his brain, Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) is currently incapacitated and will likely be forced to not seek reelection in 2008. This will, in all likelihood, allow Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth (D-SD) to run for the open seat against the eventual GOP candidate (who might be very popular governor Mike Rounds): http://www.argusleader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/
  20070104/NEWS/701040352/1001
• And, finally, Senator Wayne Allard (R-CO), who might retire in 2008, has been fueling that speculation lately. Yesterday he proposed a bill that would commemorate President Ronald Reagan's speech at the Brandenburg Gate in the form of an art piece, a bill that sounds more like a last-ditch effort at something he wants rather than a move that will win him support for a third term: http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/elections/article/
  0,2808,DRMN_24736_5256854,00.html